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1Cameroon: What if We Did Not Vote on October 9?Kamerona: Dia Ahoana Raha Tsy Mandeha Mifidy Isika Amin'ny 9 Oktobra?
2This page is part of our special coverage Cameroon Elections 2011.
3In Cameroon, the October 9, 2011, presidential election does not seem to be generating much interest among the general public.Ao Kamerona, toa tsy dia mahataitra loatra ny olona ny fifidianana izay ho filoham-pirenena amin'ny 9 Oktobra 2011.
4For many Cameroonians, this election has no real stake and voters don't see casting their ballot as worth the trouble, since the outcome is already in favor of incumbent President Paul Biya.Ho an'ny Kamerone maro, tsy dia misy lanjany loatra io fifidianana io ary dia tsy misy antony tokony hifidianana raha ny hevitry ny mpifidy maro, satria ny vokatra dia efa mirona sahady mankany amin'ny Filoha amperin'asa Paul Biya.
5Political blog Cameroun Libre et Solidaire tries to justify this lack of interest [fr]:Miezaka manamarina io tsy firaikàna io ny bilaogy momba ny politika, Cameroun Libre et Solidaire [fr]:
6A major problem in Cameroon is the lack of interest of the people for politics.Ny olana goavana iray ao Kamerona dia ny tsy firaikàn'ny vahoaka amin'ny resa-politika.
7Too many empty promises, made ​​by rogues who wanted above all to position themselves in the feed manger.Be loatra ny fampanantenana poak'aty nataon'ireo mamba noana naniry fotsiny ny hahazo toerana hihinànana.
8The result is that not many people register themselves on the electoral roll and will cast their ballot.Ny vokany dia tsy betsaka akory ny olona nanoratra ny anaran'izy ireo any anaty lisi-pifidianana ary tsy handeha hifidy.
9The challenge lies in this large segment of the population,only waiting to be convinced that there is hope.Ao anatin'io ampahany betsaka amin'ny mponina io no mipetraka ny fanamby, miandry fotsiny ny ho resena lahatra hoe mbola azo atao ny manantena.
10And yet ….Kanefa….
11The opposition party with the best chance, SDF, has called for… a boycott.Ny antoko mpanohitra SDF dia niantso … fanaovana ankivy.
12One wonders what they are trying to achieve.Mety hampanontany tena ny tsirairay ny amin'izay tanjona kendren-dry zareo.
13But will the election be canceled due to a high level of abstention?Nefa mety ho foanana ve ny fifidianana satria hoe ambony be ny tahan'ny tsy fandraisana anjara?
14Never.Sanatria.
15Paul Biya, speaking at the United Nation in New York City, has been president of Cameroon since 1982.Paul Biya, niteny tao amin'ny Firenena Mikambana tao an-tanànan'i New York, dia efa filohan'i Kamerona hatramin'ny 1982.
16Image by United Nation Photos on Flickr, under a CC BY NC ND 2.0 licence.Sary avy amin'ny Flickr an'ny Firenena Mikambana, eo ambanin'ny CC BY NC ND 2.0 licence.
17The only candidate able to defeat President Paul Biya, who is described by some as a dictator [fr] and has been in power since November 6, 1982, is Paul Biya himself.Ny kandidà tokana hany afaka handresy ny Filoha Paul Biya, izay tondroin'ny sasany ho mpanao jadona [fr] ary eo amin'ny fitondràna nanomboka ny 6 Novambra 1982, dia i Paul Biya tenany ihany.
18Although his candidature for his own reelection has not really been a surprise, it still caused quite a stir in public opinion.Na dia tsy nahagaga loatra aza ny fametrahany firotsahana ho fidiana handimby ny tenany, niteraka savoritaka kely teo amin'ny fomba fihevitry ny olona ihany ilay izy.
19However, on closer inspection, one could be forced to realize that there is no real opposition, strong enough to worry Paul Biya.Na izany aza, raha zohiana akaiky, mety ho voatery hino ihany hoe eto amin'ity firenena ity dia tsy misy ny tena fanoherana marina, ampy hery ho entina manozongozona an'i Paul Biya.
20This opinion would be supported by the fact that among the 21 candidates selected by the Electoral Council, no one really stands out, as this blogger notes [fr]:Izay fomba fijery izay dia amarinin'ny zava-misy hoe ao anatin'ireo 21 mpilatsaka ho fidiana nofantenan'ny Komitim-Pifidianana, tsy dia misy iray miavaka loatra, araka ny anambaràn'ity bilaogera ity azy [fr]:
21It is true that in this multitude of candidates, you'll find the eternal so called opponents, like John Fru Ndi, Adamou Ndam Njoya, Jean Jacques Ekindi … It is also true that there are some wacky ones, playing extras, in the name of Paul Biya, or, no doubt, driven by an excess of zeal.Marina fa ao anatin'ireto kandidà maro ireto, dia ho hitanao ireo nitonona hatrizay ho mpanohitra, toa an-dry John Fru Ndi, Adamou Ndam Njoya, Jean Jacques Ekindi … Marina ihany koa fa ao ireo tsangan'olona fotsiny, milalao amin'ny anaran'i Paul Biya, na, tsy isalasalàna, nentin'ny dehaka fotsiny.
22The fact is that in these stupid candidatures, we must see the invisible hand of the state party, the CPDM.Ny marina dia, ao amin'ireny firotsahana ho fidiana somary kidaladàla ireny, ny aloky ny tanàn'ny antokom-panjakana no hitantsika ao, ny CPDM.
23If not, how do these people, who are virtually unknown even in their residential area, who are not even elected officials and do not belong to any political movement, managed to gather the necessary signatures for their application?Raha tsy izany, fomba ahoana no nahafahan'ireny olona ireny, izay tsy fantatra akory na teo amin'ny faritra nonenany aza, izay tsy lany akory ho mpiasam-bahoaka olom-boafidy akory ary tsy mpikambana aminà hetsika ara-politika na inona na inona, no nanangona ny sonia ilaina amin'ny fametrahany ny antontan-taratasy firotsahana ho fidiana?
24Campaign poster to encourage registration on eclection lists, in Douala, Cameroon, July 2011 - Image by Flickr user verni22im, published under CC BY licence.Sary vaventy fanentanana mba hanoratra anarana ao anaty lisi-pifidianana, ao Douala, Kamerona, Jolay 2011 - Sary an'ilay mpampiasa Flickr, verni22im, navoaka ambanin'ny CC BY licence.
25Where is the opposition?Aiza ny mpanohitra?
26But where is this opposition, in Cameroon?Fa aiza ny mpanohitra eto Kamerona e?
27There is none, according to Allain Jules on his blog [fr]:Tsy misy na iray aza, araka ny filazan'i Allain Jules ao amin'ny bilaoginy [fr]:
28Non existent.Tsy misy.
29That the word.Izay no azo lazaina.
30Apparent apathy.Tsy firaharahiana mivandravandra.
31Nothing to put in their mouths.Tsy misy harapaka.
32Whatever the reason, despite the wear of the power in place.Na inona na inona antony, na eo aza ny halemen'ny fitondràna ao an-toerana.
33Especially since the most viable opposition party of Cameroon, the Social Democratic Front (SDF) of chairman John Fru Ndi, became great pals with Paul Biya's RDPC ; a romance woven since the late wife of its leader had been evacuated to France to be treated by the Etoudi palace (the presidential Palace), nothing is as it used to be.Indrindra indrindra fa hatramin'ny firaisana petsapetsan'ny antoko mpanohitra isan'ny lehibe indrindra teto Kamerona, ny Social Democratic Front (SDF) an'i John Fru Ndi tamin'ny RDPC an'i Paul Biya; tantaram-pitiavana nirafitra nanomboka tamin'ny nandefasan'ny Lapan'ny Etoudi (Lapan'ny Filoham-panjakana) an'itompokovavy vadin'ny filohan'io antoko mpanohitra io hotsaboina tany Frantsa, tsy toy ny teo aloha intsony ny zavatra rehetra.
34Let us face it: today, the RDPC is unbeatable, even without fraud.Aoka isika hiatrika izany: androany, tsy ho resy mihitsy ny RDPC, na tsy hisy aza ny hala-bato.
35In the same vein, news site Slateafrique.com publishes an analysis [fr] by famous Cameroonian political analyst Mathi Eric Owona Nguini:Amin'izay làlan-jotra izay ihany, ny vohikalam-baovao Slateafrique.com dia mamoaka fandalinana iray [fr] nataonà Kamerone iray malaza, Mathi Eric Owona Nguini, mpandalina ara-politika :
36The opposition is largely weakened.Tratry ny fanangolena amin'ny ampahany betsaka ny mpanohitra.
37Its leaders are worn out and their big handicap is the lack of programmatic and ideologicalproposals.Reraka ireo mpitarika azy ireny, ary ny tena fahavoazan-dry zareo dia ny tsy fahampian'ny fandaharan'asa sy soso-kevitra ideolojika.
38In addition, it is fragmented and lacks drive.Fanampin'izany, voasamantsàmaka izy ary tsy ampy mpitarika.
39Which of course benefits the ruling party, which has been in power longer and is more experienced.Izay manome vàhana mazava loatra ny antoko mitondra, izay efa ela teo amin'ny fitondràna sy ampy fahaiza-manao kokoa.
40However, in an article [fr] published in 2010, economist Thierry Amougou, aware of this issue, had invited Cameroonians not to be forgetful and not to be fooled again by the regime in place, reminding them of milestones marking the “cycle” of Paul Biya at the helm of the Cameroonian State:Na izany aza, ao anaty lahatsoratra [fr] iray nivoaka tamin'ny 2010, ilay mpahay toekarena, Thierry Amougou, tonga saina momba io olana io, dia niantso ny Kamerone tsy hanadino sy tsy ho voarebirebin'ny fitondrana eo an-toerana indray, mampahatsiahy azy ireo zava-manan-danja nanamarika ny “vanim-potoana” Paul Biya teo amin'ny fitantànana ny Fanjakana Kamerone:
41Although polls across the world show that voters' choices are, on average, guided by events not older than six months at the date of the vote, Cameroonians are requested to have a longer memory this time.Na dia mampiseho aza ny fitsapan-kevitra eran'izao tontolo izao fa ny safidin'ireo mpifidy dia, amin'ny ankapobeny, nobaikoin'ireo zava-nitranga tsy ela akory efa ho enim-bolana eo ho eo miohatra amin'ny datin'nadrom-pifidianana, mila manana fitadidiana lasa lavidavitra kokoa ny Kamerone amin'ity indray mitoraka ity.
42They have not been subjected to the misdirection of the Renouveau National for five or ten years, but for nearly thirty years.Tsy vao dimy na folo taona akory no niharitra ny tsy fahaiza-mitantan'ny Renouveau National ry zareo, fa efa ho telopolo taona mihitsy.
43To be forgetful, in 2011, is to not recall that the current “gadget politics” aim at making them forget:Ny maha-very tadidy, tamin'ny 2011, dia tsy fitodihana amin'ny hoe ny tanjon'ireo “kilalao politika” dia ny hanaovana izay hanadinoan-dry zareo
44- multiple constitutional changes in favor of one man- ireo fanovàna samihafa tamin'ny lalàm-panorenana dia manome vàhana rangahy iray ihany
45- the creation of Elecam, instead of a truly independent electoral commission;- ny fananganana ny Elecam, fa tsy kaomisionam-pifidianana tena mahaleotena marina;
46- the killings of young Cameroonians in February 2008;- ny famonoana ireo tanora Kamerone tamin'ny Febroary 2008;
47- and [anticorruption] Opération Epervier, the result of 30 years of bad governance of the Renouveau National. ».- ary ny [fanaoherana ny kolikoly] Opération Epervier, vokatry ny faharatsiam-pitantanana nataon'ny Renouveau National nandritra ny 30 taona . ».
48Faced with this situation, one is tempted to wonder about the future of this country, which has been restless in the past [fr], and whose current president has never been able to achieve unanimity.Eo anatrehan'izay zava-misy izay, mety ho voasarika hisaina ny tsirairay hanontany tena mikasika ny amin'ny hoavin'ity firenena ity, izay tsy nanam-pitsaharana nandritra ireo andro lasany [fr], ary ny filohany amin'izao fotoana izao tsy afaka velively ny hanatratra ny hoe lanim-bahoaka.