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1Russia: Analyzing the Possible Scale of Saturday's Election ProtestsRosia : Fandinihana Ny Mety Ho Hamafin'ny Korontana Amin'ny Hetsi-panoherana Ny Asabotsy Androm-pifidianana
2This post is part of our special coverage Russia Elections 2011.Ity lahatsoratra ity dia ampahany amin'ny tatitray manokana momba ny Fifidianana ao Rosia 2011.
3As the situation with the Russian election results and the country's detained protesters has not yet been resolved (see Global Voices coverage 1, 2, 3), people in many cities are preparing for demonstrations on Saturday 10 December, 2011.Koa satria ny toe-draharahan'ny voka-pifidianana Rosiana sy ny momba ireo mpanao fihetsiketsehana voatazona manerana ny firenena dia mbola tsy voavaha (jereo ny lahatsoratra Global Voices 1, 2, 3), dia mponina avy amin'ny tanàna maro no niomana hanao fihetsiketsehana ny Asabotsy 10 Desambra 2011.
4Early on December 8, user mitingmap created a map [ru] that summarizes the protest groups in the Russian cities.Vao maraina be ny 8 Desambra, i mitingmap dia namorona “sarintany” [ru] izay mamintina ny vondron'ireo mpanao fihetsikesehana any amijn'ireo tanàna Rosiana.
5Novaya Gazeta has assembled a list [ru] of planned protest events.Novaya Gazeta dia nanambatra lisitra iray [ru] misy ireo hetsi-panoherana voavinavina.
6Pressure on VkontakteTsindry atao amin'ny Vkontakte
7Social media groups that have appeared in almost every major city are regarded as a threat.Ireo vondron'ny filazam-baovao ara-sosialy rehetra izay nipongatra efa mila ho isaky ny tanàn-dehibe rehetra dia norasina ho toy ny zava-mahatahotra.
8On December 8, LiveJournal user Edvvvard wrote [ru] that some strange things had started happen to his Vkontakte group Rospil (dedicated to support blogger Alexey Navalny's award-winning project rospil.info).Ny 8 Desambra, i Edvvvard, mpampiasa LiveJournal, dia nanoratra [ru] fa nisy zavatra mampiahiahy nanomboka tsikaritra tao amin'ny “Vkontakte group Rospil” izay azy (natao indrindra mba hanohanana ny tetikasa n'ilay bilaogera Alexey Navalny nahazo loka tamin'ny rospil.info).
9Protest activity map.Sarisarin'ilay lahasa amin'ny hetsi-panoherana.
10Screenshot from Yandex.mapsSary avy amin'iYandex.maps
11Initially, he thought it might be the policy of Vkontakte users to prevent protesters to communicate.Tamin'ny voalohany, nihevitra izy fa mety ho politikan'ireo mpampiasa Vkontakte izany, mba handraràna ireo mpanao hetsi-panoherana tsy hifandray.
12Then, however, he received a response from Pavel Durov, the founder of the social network, saying that the group had reached the daily limit of comments and that he was working on fixing it.Avy eo, nahazo valinteny avy amin'i Pavel Durov izy, ilay namorona ny tambajotra sosialy, izay nilaza fa nahatratra ny fetra farany amin'ny fandraisana ny fanamarihana avy amin'ny olona ao anatin'ny iray andro ilay vondrona ary miasa amin'ny fanamboarana izany izy.
13Later on, Durov added [ru]:Taorian'izay, Durov dia nanampy hoe [ru] :
14Everything's OK.AO TSARA ny zavatra rehetra.
15Recently the FSB [Federal Security Service] asked us to close opposition groups, like yours.Vao haingana ny FSB [Federal Security Service] no nangataka taminay ny mba hanakatona ny vondrona mpanohitra, toy ny anareo.
16By principle we don't do that. we don't know yet how it will end for us, but we're standingAmin'ny fitsipi-pitondran-tena dia tsy nanao izany izahay. tsy mbola fantatray hoe ahoana ny hiafaranay, fa mijoro izahay izao
17Edvvvard wrote that Durov had chosen sides in the post-election conflict and his side was the one of the bloggers.Edvvvard dia nanoratra hoe Durov dia nisafidy ny ankolafiny tamin'ny fifandirana taorian'ny fifidianana ary ny an'ireo bilaogera no nofidiany.
18A few hours later, news site lenta.ru broke [ru] the news that police had proposed to ban anonymity online, since social networks “bear a potential threat to the base of society.”Ora vitsy taorian'izay, ilay vohikalam-baovao lenta.ru no namoaka[ru] vaovao hoe ny polisy dia nilaza fa handràra ny tsy filazana anarana anaty aterineto, hatramin'ny ” nahamarihana fa loza mitatao ho an'ny fototry ny fiarahamonina” ny tambajotra sosialy.
19Later Minister Nurgaliev denounced [ru] the proposal calling it “a nonsense.”Taty aoriana ny Ministra Nurgaliev dia niampanga ilay [ru] fanambaràna ary niantso izany ho “tsy misy dikany.”
20So far, however, none of the groups have been closed or banned.Hatreto, na izany aza, tsy nisy na dia iray aza tamin'ireo vondrona no nakatona na noraràna.
21Understanding current online mobilizationManakatra ny fanentanana anaty aterineto amin'izao fotoana
22Indeed, the digital dynamics seem overwhelming so far.Tena marina, ny fahazotoana anaty aterineto dia toa nahazo vahana be tato ho ato.
23Television channel ‘Rain' reported [ru] that within the last four days their audience had grown by five times.Ilay fahitalavitra ‘Rain' dia nitatitra [ru] fa tato anatin'ny andro efatra farany, ny mpanaraka azy ireo dia nitombo avo dimy heny.
24Within days too, a Moscow Facebook group organized by 24-year-old Ilya Klishin had reached [ru] more than 30,000 members.Tao anatin'ny roa andro koa, ny vondrona Facebook iray ao Moscow izay karakarain'i Ilya Klishin, 24 taona, dia nahatratra mpikambana [ru] mihoatran'ny 30 000.
25I have analyzed data from groups on social networks Facebook and Vkontakte associated with election-related protests and was able to find some interesting results (recorded on December 8, between 11:30 and 15:00 Central Eastern European time).Namadibadika ny angona avy amin'ireo vondrona tao amin'ny tambajotra sosialy ao amin'ny Facebook sy Vkontakte aho izay mifandraika aminà hetsi-panoherana mifandray amin'ny fifidianana, ary nahita valiny mahaliana (nalaina ny 8 Desambra, teo anelanelan'ny 11:30 sy 03:00 ora tolakandro, ora any Eoropa Afovoany Atsinanana ). Ity lahatsoratra ity dia ampahany amin'ny tatitray manokana momba ny Fifidianana ao Rosia 2011.