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1Rajoelina Steps Aside for Madagascar's Presidential RaceMadagasikara: Nahoana Rajoelina No Tsy Nilatsaka Hofidiana Ho Filohampirenena?
2Andry Rajoelina sur wikipédia.Andry Rajoelina ao amin'ny wikipédia.
3License Creative Commons 3.0License Creative Commons 3.0
4[All links forward to french articles unless otherwise stated] With interim President Rajoelina announcing that he withdraws from a bid to run for the presidential elections following a similar announcement by former President Ravalomanana in December 2012, Malagasy people are likely to have a new president in 2013, provided that elections take place as planned in the electoral agenda.Taorian'ny fanambaran'ny filohan'ny tetezamita Rajoelina tsy ho kandidà izay nanaraka ny an'ny filoha teo aloha Ravalomanana tamin'ny desambra 2012, hanana filoha vaovao izany ny malagasy amin'ity taona 2013 ity, ka hoe hotontosaina araka ny fotoana efa niomanana ny datim-pifidianana.
5Many of the observers are skeptical about the elections timeline in light of the statements of Rajoelina after his announcement and his wishes to change the electoral agenda.Maro ny mpanara-baovao no tsy dia matoky loatra amin'ny fanatanterahana ny fifidianana raha jerena avy amin'ny fanambaran-dRajoelina amin'ny fomba tiany hanatontosana ny fifidianana.
6After nearly four years of political crisis with the same political leaders changing positions repeatedly, observers wonder if yet another reversal is in the works.Efa-taona nisian'ny krizy sy ny fivadibadihan-delan'ny mpitarika politika, dia manontany tena ny mpanara-baovao raha tsy atahorana izao fivadihan-kevitra izao.
7Andry counts himself among the skeptics [en] :Anisan'ny be ahiahy [en] i Andry :
8Are we really sure… that he [Rajoelina] will just sit and admire the landscape?Mahazo matoky ve isika fa hipetraka tsara sy hijery fotsiny izy ?
9Even if he made an official declaration to the nation, to all the Malagasy people, what guarantee do we have that he will keep his words?Na dia efa nanao fanambarana ofisialy tamin'ny firenena teo imason'ny Malagasy iray manontolo aza izy, inona no antoka fa hitana ny teniny izy ?
10It is not the first time that he denied his own [words].Tsy vao indray mandeha no efa nitsipaka izay nosoniaviny izy.
11Maurice Beranto, one of the candidates for the presidential elections, asks a similar question on his blog :Maurice Beranto, iray amin'ny kandidà ho filoham-pirenena, manontany toy izany ihany koa ao amin'ny bilaoginy :
12Many of us, including myself, have constantly wondered why so much procrastination for a decision that is self-evident.Maro amintsika, izaho no voalohany, no mbola manontany hoe nahoana no mbola feno fisalasalana ihany na dia efa miatrika zavatra miharihary aza.
13How can he truly believe that the interim president will be a candidate for an election that should officially seal the end of the transition he chairs?Ahoana tokoa moa no ahafaha-mieritreritra fa afa-mirotsaka hofidiana amina fifidianana izay hamaranana ny tetezamita izay tantaniny ny filohan'ny tetezamita? [..]
14[…] Secondly, by stating that legislative elections should take place prior to the presidential ones, Rajoelina shows that he really struggled with the decision to not run in the presidential elections.Faharoa manaraka izany, amin'ny fiheverana fa ny fifidianana depiote no tokony hotontosaina alohan'ny fifidianana filoham-pirenena, dia asehon-dRajoelina fa tsy tamim-tsitrapo no nanaovana ny fanambarana tsy hirotsaka ho filoham-pirenena.
15Rather than providing a calming influence to the nation, he only managed to add fuel to the fire..Raha tokony hampitony tanteraka ny lalao izy dia mbola hanampy trotraka ihany..
16Rabelazao also questions whether there are any hidden agenda with his wishes to switch to organising legislative elections prior to presidential ones, despite the fact that the decision has already been taken several months ago by the Independent National Electoral Commission for Transition CENI-T.Manontany ihany koa Rabelazao raha toia ka tsy misy tanjona hafa ao ambadiky ny fanatanterahana ny fifidianana solombavambahoaka mialoha ny fifidianana filoham-pirenena nefa efa notapahin'ny Vaomieram-Pirenena Mahaleo Tena Misahana Ny Fifidianana Mandritra ny Tetezamita CENI-T ny datim-pifidianana.
17Rabelazao posted on twitter [mg]:Toy izao no nosoratany tao amin'ny twitter [mg]:
18@Rabelazao: @harinjaka That's just a trick ! I am not running for president so I will push back the presidential elections.@Rabelazao: @harinjaka kajy ankandrina daholo izany e! tsy hilatsaka ho fidiana ho prezida aho, de ahemotra aloha ny fifidianana prezida. fetsepr
19Slick.. Jack goes further in analysing the reasoning behind Rajoelina's persistence to hold legislative elections before presidential ones:Lasa lavitra kokoa i Jack amin'ny famakafakana ny antony nahatonga an-dRajoelina mikiry ny hanatontosana ny solombavambahoaka mialoha ny filoham-pirenena:
20If he succeeds in holding the legislative elections first while still the interim president, those elections will turn out like the referendum [in 2010, with suspicion of fraud].Raha mahavita mandefa mialoha ny fifidianana solombavambahoaka izy, nefa mbola filohan'ny tetezamita, dia hitovy amin'ny referandaoma ny ho fizotrany.
21TGV will hold the majority and a parliamentary session will change the constitution into a semi-presidential regime.Ho maro an'isa ny TGV ka ao anatin'ny fotoam-pivoriana maningana manokana no hanovany ao anatin'ny valo andro ny lalampanorenana ho manamafy amin'ny ampahany ny fahefan'ny filoham-pirenena.
22He will then be appointed as prime minister.Hotendrena ho Praiminisitra izy.
23Rajoelina himself responded to such an hypothesis in an interview for Radio RFI. He evoked a scenario similar to the one that occurred in Russia with V.Namaly izan petra-kevitra izany Rajoelina nandritra ny tafatafa nifanaovana tamin'ny RFI, izay nampahatsiahy ny tranga toy izany tamin'ny V.
24Putin [when Putin became prime minister after being president] .Putin tany Rosia.
25Here are excerpts from the interview with Christophe Boisbouvier :Indro ny sombin'izany tafatafa nifanaovana tamin'i Christophe Boisbouvier izany:
26CB: You call yourself a statesman.CB: Mametraka ny tenanao ho Olom-Panjakana ianao.
27Is there someone else that inspired you before making your decision?Misy olona izay nakanao tahaka ve nialoha ny nanaovanao ny safidinao ?
28AR: In fact, two leaders inspired me.AR: Misy olona roa tokoa.
29One is a man who has been through much suffering, but eventually won his battle: Nelson Mandela.Olona iray niaritra ny mafy tokoa saingy nandresy tamin'ny adiny : Nelson Mandela.
30And, on the European side, why shouldn't I be the de Gaulle of Madagascar ?Ary raha eo amin'ny lafiny Eoropeana indray, inona ny antony tsy ametrahana ahy ho de Gaulle malagasy?
31What do you precisely remember of General de Gaulle's actions?Fa inona tokoa no noraisinao avy amin'i de Gaulle ?
32People will remember him with his decision to retire on his own term.Naka fanapahan-kevitra tamin'ny fotoana nilàna izany.
33And that is also what the people will remember.Fa hahatsiaro ny vahoaka.
34And the same people will decide who should lead the country when the time comes. [..]Ka ny vahoaka ihany no hiantso izay tokony hitondra ny firenena, amin'ny fotoana ilàna izany. [..]
35Do you envision a Putin type of scenario?Mieritreritra toy ny tranga tamin'i Putin ve ianao ?
36Your candidate is elected, you become his prime minister and you return in 2018?Lany ny kandidànao, dia lasa Praiminisitra ianao ka hiverina amin'ny 2018 ?
37At the moment, we have yet to decide on a strategy.Tsy mbola misy tetipanorona napetraka amin'izao fotoana izao.
38Therefore, you do not exclude this Putin-like scenario?Izany hoe tsy eriteretinao ny tahaka ny an'i Putin ?
39We shall see. You will find out more about that in the following weeks.Mbola ho hitantsika. hahalala bebe kokoa ianao ao anatin'ny herinandro vitsivitsy.
40Patrick in the Madagascar Tribune details the hesitation before this announcement and explains that the legal risks surrounding Rajoelina have perhaps encouraged him to give up on his candidacy :Patrick ao amin'ny Madagascar Tribune mamoaka amin'ny antsipirihany ny fisalasalana mialoha io fanambarana io ary manazava fa ny raharaham-pitsarana mety hiandry an-dRajoelina no nanosika ity farany hihemotra tsy ho kandidà:
41The most difficult step was to get Marc Ravalomanana to withdraw from the race because he always appeared to be more reluctant than his rival on this issue.Ny dingana sarotra indrindra efa azo dia ny fijanonan'i Marc Ravalomanana, satria izy no nihenahena kokoa noho ny mpifanandrina aminy eo amin'ity teboka ity.
42All resistance seems futile after that: sure, the prospect of financial sanctions imposed on Madagascar were not a sufficient deterrent. But the prospect of an investigation by the French justice system following a complaint from a Franco-Malagasy bi-national that could put Andry Rajoelina and his family in serious embarrassment was seemingly sufficient.Efa lasa tsy misy dikany intsony izay fikirizana rehetra atao : raha toa ka mbola tsy naharesy lahatra loatra ny sazy ara-bola natao tamin'i Madagasikara, dia ny faneken'ny Fitsarana Frantsay fitoriana napetraka any Frantsa avy amin'olona iray mizaka ny zom-pirenena Malagasy sy Frantsay ho azo raisina ohatra no hametraka an'i Andry Rajoelina sy ny namany ho sahiran-kevitra.
43Whatever the next turn of events are, the year 2013 promises to be a year full of surprises. The plethora of candidates who remain will have some difficult tasks ahead.Na ho inona na ho inona fivadihan-draharaha amin'ity taona 2013 izay ho feno tsy ampoizina ity, mbola ho be ny asa miandry kandidà maro sisa ambiny.
44Rajoelina's desired electoral agenda notwithstanding, the preparation of the electoral process faces many obstacles, such as its financing.Eo ankilan'ny fepetra nirìn-dRajoelina amin'ny fanatontosana ny fifidianana, dia mbola maro ny sakana mihatra amin'ny fanantanterahana ny fifidianana, tahaka ny vola ikarakaràna ny fanomanana.
45A report states that “13 million dollars for financing the election set-up remain to be found”.Nomarihan'ny tatitra iray fa “13 tapitrisa dollars ny vola mbola tadiavina hikarakarana ny fifidianana”.
46However, the CENI-T adds that :Nefa nanampy ny CENI-T fa :
47The Minister of Finances has allocated 3 billion Malagasy Ariary over to the CENI-T last week.Nanome vola 3 miliara ariary fanampiny ho an'ny CENI-T ny minisiteran'ny Vola sy ny Tetibola.
48These funds will become part of the operating budget of the independent institution.Ho tafiditra ao anatin'ny fampandehanan-draharahan'ny birao mahaleo tena io vola io.
49The state remains the main source of funding for the smooth running of the activities related to the electoral process.Ny Fanjakana no mitoetra ho loharanombola voalohany amin'ny raharaha fanatontosana ny fifidianana.
50The economic climate is still very tense in Madagascar.Mbola henjana ny toe-draharaha politika eto Madagasikara.
51The latest report from the World Bank on poverty in Madagascar is at the very least alarming:Mahataitra ny tatitra farany nataon'ny Banky Mondialy momba ny fahantrana eto Madagasikara :
52According to estimates, 84% of Madagascar's population will be below the poverty line in 2013.Araka ny tatitra, hahatratra ny 84%n'ny mponina eto Madagasikara ny fahantrana amin'ny 2013.
53In 2010, 77% out of the 20 million inhabitants lived in these tenuous conditions with an income of 0,78 Euros/day […] All the main indicators such as unemployment, inflation, declining purchasing power per household, are in the red.Tamin'ny 2010 dia ny 77%n'ny 20 tapitrisa no miavo-tena sahirana amin'ny vola raisina 0,78 euro isan'andro [..] [Mirehitra ny jiro menan'ny] tsy fisian'asa, ny sondro-bidim-piainana, fihenan'ny fahafaha-mividin'ny isan-tokantrano.