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1Middle East: A Closer Look at Tunisia's UprisingAfovoany Atsinanana: Fanarahana maso akaiky kokoa ny Fitroatr'i Tonizia
2This post is part of our special coverage of Tunisia Revolution 2011. As Tunisians continue to grapple with the fast paced events of the few previous days which saw the fall of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and his escape, Arab bloggers continue to share their thoughts and reflections on the Tunisian uprising and what it spells for the rest of the region.Raha manohy miatrika ireo zava-nitranga nihazakazaka be tao anatin'ny andro vitsy lasa izay nahitàna ny fialàn'i Zine El Abidine Ben Ali sy ny fitsoahany an'i Tonizia ry zareo Toniziana, ny mpitoraka bilaogy Arabo kosa mizara ny eritreriny sy ny fandinihany mikasika ny fitroatry ny Toniziana ary ny dikan'izany eo amin'ny ambin'ny faritra rehetra.
3Syrian Abu Kareem, at the Levantive Dreamhouse, explains what is ‘invigorating' about the Tunisian uprising to its Arab neighbours.Ilay Syriana Abu Kareem, ao amin'ny Levantive Dreamhouse, dia manazava hoe inona no atao hoe ‘tan-dalàna' mikasika ny fitroatry ny Toniziana amin'ireo Arabo mpiray vodirindrina aminy.
4He says:Hoy izy:
5It is perhaps its spontaneity, its lacks of designated leaders that give it the feel of a genuine, popular uprising and not an ideologically-driven coup destined to serve the desires of a narrow constituency.Mety hoe ilay endrika tampoka be, na ny tsy fisian'ny mpitondra voatendry no nanome azy ny maha-fihetseham-bahoaka azy, fa tsy fanonganam-panjakana nentaninà foto-kevitra ideolojika natao ho an'ny antokon'olom-bitsy.
6It is easy as an Arab, to resign oneself to the fact that the region's stagnant and sclerotic political systems are immovable and immutable.Mora ho amin'ny maha-Arabo ny mionona fotsiny amin'ny tranga hoe tsy azo ovaina sy ozongozonina ny faritra iray tsy mandroso tsy mihemotra sy ny rafitra politika eo aminy.
7It is exactly this state of hopelessness and inertia that most of the region's leaders strive to instill in their people.Izay toetra iray tsy manana fanantenana sy fahazotoana izay no ezahan'ny mpitarika aty amin'ny faritra halentika ao an-tsain'ny vahoakany.
8It kills hope, prevents progress and keeps the leaders in power.Mamono ny fanantenany, misoroka ny fivoarana ary mitazona ny mpitarika ho eo amin'ny fahefana.
9So I hope that the leaders across the region take note and that a cold chill runs down their spine as they watch the events in Tunis unfold; perhaps it will make them reconsider their ways.Ka manantena aho fa ny mpitarika manerana ireo faritra dia ho tonga saina ka ho rà mangatsiaka no mikoriana ao anatin'izy ireo eo am-pijerena ny tsy fandehanan-javatra any Tunis; mety hitarika azy ireo hamerina handanjalanja ny lalan-kizorany izany.
10Bahraini Emoodz broke his blogging silence vow to chant VIVE LA TUNISIE!Namaky ny fahanginan'ny bilaoginy tamin'ny hiaka hoe HO ELA VELONA I TONIZIA! (VIVE LA TUNISIE!) ilay Bahraini Emoodz
11He remarks:Manamarika izy:
12I watched with great excitement the events as they unfolded in Tunisia; in all honesty I had very little hope that the events will evolve and reach where it reached today.Nijery tamim-pientanentanana ny zava-nitranga aho araka ny nitàran'izy ireny tany Tonizia; raha ny marina, kely ny fanantenako ny amin'ny hivoaran'ny raharaha ka hahatongavany amin'izay misy azy amin'izao fotoana.
13No matter how much research I carry out I still can't understand how the Tunisian were able to overthrow a regime in a month's time.Tsy olana mihitsy hoe fikarohana firy no nataoko, fa mbola tsy mety azoko mihitsy hoe ahoana no nahafahan'ny Toniziana nanàla fitondrana tao anatina volana iray monja.
14Emoodz adds:Manampy i Emoodz :
15There is this great sense of excitement going around the Arab World over what had happened, news agencies and political analysts are all of a sudden talking about how Tunisia is just the beginning to what is expected to have a domino effect and extend to other Arab governments in the region, which I think is highly improbable…Misy io fahatsapana fientanentanana lehibe io mandehandeha eo amin'ny tontolo Arabo mikasika ny zava-miseho, masoivohom-vaovao sy mpandalina ara-politika no miaraka miresaka amin'ny maha-fiandohan'ny antsoina hoe ‘effet domino' (fianjerana daomy) fotsiny an'i Tonizia ary hihitatra amin'ireo governemanta Arabo hafa eo amin'ny faritra, izay tsy heveriko mihitsy hoe hitranga …
16In a post entitled Tunisia, Prove us Wrong, Saudi Hala_In_USA poses the following questions:Ao amin'ny lahatsoratra mitondra ny lohateny hoeTonizia, Porofoy aminay fa diso izahay, dia mametraka izao fanontaniana manaraka izao i Saudi Hala_In_USA :
17In the aftermath, all eyes in the Arab world is tuned to Tunisia, would this be a new beginning of unprecedented democracy in the Middle East? would it lure other countries to follow? or would it fall in the grab of Islamists or the same old Bin Ali‘s men under different labels?Vokany, nitodika tany Tonizia avokoa ny maso rehetra teo amin'ny tontolo Arabo, izay angamba mety ho fiantombohana vaovaon'ny demokrasia mbola tsy nisy teo aloha teto Afovoany Atsinanana ve ity? Mety hitarika ny firenena hafa ve izany?
18Na hianjera eo ambany vahohon'ny Islamista na olona hafan-dry Bin Ali fa amin'ny endrika samihafa?
19She also shares her anxiety:Mizara ny tebitebiny ihany koa izy:
20I have a mixed feeling in this regards, while I share the same fears of Robert Fisk of the ugly truth, that countries in the region as well as in the West will probably never support a true democracy in Tunisia, for fear that it may bring unfavorable outcomes, that the people in power would only accept Arab state that would support Western best interests, the hate toward Iran and a tight control of their people… Yet, I still believe that lessons of oppression and corruptions have been taken well by Tunisians, that they will not easily forget the body in flames of Bouazizi, they will always remember the days of oppression, poverty, and limited resources brought about by totalitarian regimen, I hope that Tunisia would lead the way for a new era, to see justice and experience for the first time a people government, to prove us wrong, and to prove that people do have a choice, can have a choice and can make a better future for themselves…Manana fahatsapana misavoritaka momba ity resaka ity aho , sady koa mizara ny tebitebin'i Robert Fisk momba ny marina mampivarahontsana, hoe ny firenena eo amin'ny faritra toy ny any Andrefana dia mety tsy hahazaka mihitsy ny atao hoe tena demokrasia marina any Tonizia, noho ny tahotra hoe mety hitondra vokatra tsy tsara izany, ka ny olona eo amin'ny fahefana tsy hanaiky afa-tsy ny fanjakana Arabo izay mety hanohana ny tombontsoa tsaran'ny Tandrefana, ny fankahalàna an'i Iran ary ny fitondrana mangeja ny vahoakany… Na izany aza, mbola mino aho fa nahazo tsara ny lesona mikasika ny tsindry hazo lena sy ny kolikoly ny Toniziana, fa tsy ho adinon'izy ireo mora foana ny vatan'i Bouazizi nirehitra afo, ho tsaroan'izy ireo foana ireo andron'ny famoretana, ny fahantrana, ary ny fidiram-bola voafetra nentin'ny rafitra tsy refesi-mandidy, manantena aho fa i Tonizia no ho mpisava làlan'ny vanim-potoana vaovao, hahita ny fahamarinana sy ny traikefa voalohany amin'ny governemantam-bahoaka, hanaporofo amintsika fa diso isika, ary hanaporofo fa tena manana safidy ny vahoaka, afaka manana safidy sy afaka mamboatra hoavy tsaratsara kokoa ho azy ireo…
21Algerian-American Kal, writing at The Moor Next Door, is also apprehensive.Ilay Alzeriana-Amerikana Kal, manoratra ao amin'ny The Moor Next Door, ihany koa dia miahiahy.
22He notes:Hoy izy manoratra:
23The Tunisian case, with all its idiosyncrasies (the legacy of Bourguiba, secularism, its high rate of education and women's rights) it represents something new in Arab politics that observers must continue to pay attention.Ny zava-manjo ny Toniziana, miaraka amin'ny toetra tsy iraisany amin'ny hafa (ny lova navelan'i Bourguiba, ny rakitry ny lasany, ny taham-pianarana avo sy ny zon'ny vehivavy) maneho zava-baovao izany amin'ny politika Arabo izay tokony hotohizan'ny mpandinika araha-maso akaiky hatrany.
24Early on the Sidi Bouzid events were dismissed as bread riots and were not appreciated for they ended up being.Tany ampiandohana ny zava-nitranga tao Sidi Bouzid dia noraisina ho maivana, toy ny firohotan'ny mofo, ary tsy noheverina araka izay mety hiafaràny.
25This blogger was cautious, mostly for the same reason others were: things like this weren't supposed to happen in countries like Tunisia.Malina ity mpitoraka bilaogy ity , indrindra noho ny antony mitovy amin'ny an'ny hafa hoe: tsy nampoizina hitranga amin'ny firenena sahala amin'i Tonizia ny zavatra toy izany .
26What was written here during the uprising happened only because it happened in the Maghreb (and because it seemed . . . strange).Ny zavatra rehetra soratana eto nandritra ny firohotana dia satria noho izy nitranga tany Maghreb ihany (ary satria koa toa. . . hafahafa izany).
27What should be very sad is if all the work Tunisians put into their intifada was hijacked by old party people and officers and put on course for rule by committees or strong men as has been the case following so many times before.Ny zavatra tena tokony hampalahelo dia ny hoe raha izay nataon'ny Toniziana tamin'ny intifada-ny no hojokoin'ireo olon'ny antoko taloha sy ny manampahefan'ny tafika ka apetraka ho eo ambany fiadidian'ny komity na olona matanjaka toy ny zavatra efa hita matetika teo aloha.
28The question remains: what will be done?Ny fanontaniana mipetraka: inona no hatao?
29From Israel, Yael, at Life in Israel, predicts that Egypt could be next:Avy any Israely , i Yael, ao amin'ny Life in Israel, dia milaza sahady fa i Egypta no manaraka:
30The events in Tunisia -the first collapse of an autocratic regime in the Arab world due to a popular uprising that has implications for the wider region -are unlikely to, at least in the immediate future, spark a domino effect of uprisings and overthrows in other countries in the region.Ny zava-nitranga tany Tonizia - ny fianjerana voalohan'ny fanjakana tsy refesi-mandidy teo amin'ny tontolo Arabo noho ny firohotan'ny vahoaka ary nisy fiantraikany tamin'ny faritra manontolo - dia toa, farafaharatsiny, ao anatin'ny hoavy akaikikaiky, manaparitaka toy ny fianjerana daomy ny firohotana sy ny fanonganana any amin'ny firenena hafa eo amin'ny faritra.
31But pretty much all the experts are saying to keep a very sharp eye on Egypt because it is quite possible that Egypt is going to be the next one to go.Nefa maro ihany ny manampahaizana no milaza fa hijery akaiky an'i Ejipta satria tena mety ho marina fa i Ejipta no handeha manaraka.
32She adds:Hoy izy manampy:
33The Arab masses (not just in North Africa but the Levant and the Arabian Peninsula) have watched the fall of the Tunisian regime blow by blow, creating the possibility that the public in many countries may find inspiration in the Tunisian experience.Nijery ny fianjeran'ny fitantanana Toniziana tsikelikely ny tontolon'ny asa fanaovan-gazety Arabo (tsy hoe tany Afrika avaratra fotsiny ihany fa ny Levant sy ny Penainsiola Arabo - nafaritra Arabo amoron-dranomasina - ihany koa) , niteraka làlana ho an'ireo vahoaka maro any amin'ny firenen-tsamihafa hoe ho azo atao ny maka aingam-panahy avy amin'ny traikefa Toniziana.
34It is too early to say how things will unfold in the Middle East and North Africa, as each state has unique circumstances that will determine its trajectory.Mbola aloha loatra anefa raha izao no hilaza hoe ahoana ny fivoaran'ny zavatra any Afovoany Atsinanana sy Afrika Avaratra, noho ny firenena samy manana ny toe-javatra ananany izay mamaritra ny làlany.
35What is certain, however, is that a regional shift is under way, at least to the extent that governments can no longer continue with business as usual.”Ny tena azo antoka aloha, na izany aza, dia efa eo an-dàlana ny fikisahana ho any amin'ny faritra, farafaharatsiny mihitatra amin'ny hoe ny governemanta aloha dia tsy afaka manohy intsony ny asany andavanandro toy ny fanaony.”
36Syrian Qunfuz takes a closer look at whether this “domino effect” is possible in the region.Manara-maso akaiky ihany koa ny Syriana Qunfuz ny amin'ny “fiantraikan'ny fianjerana daomy ” mety ho hisy na tsia eo amin'ny faritra.
37He writes:Hoy izy manoratra:
38If there is a domino effect, it won't be immediate and it won't proceed evenly.Raha misy ny fianjeran'ny daomy, dia tsy ho izao dieny izao ary tsy ho toy izany ny fandehany.
39Current conditions in Iraq obviously will not permit a unified national uprising against the government.Tsy hamela fitroarana iray anaty firaisankina mba hanoherana governemanta raha ny fahitàna ny zava-misy amin'izao fotoana any Irak.
40Such language is not even relevant.Na izany fomba fiteny izany aza tsy mety.
41In Syria the president is reasonably popular, even if the regime around him isn't.Any Syria, tena malaza be tsy misy hoatr'izany ny filoha, eny fa na dia tsy toa izany aza ny fitondrana manodidina azy.
42And if the president were to fall dramatically from popular grace, Syrians fear that revolution would lead to sectarian war and Israeli intervention - both real possibilities.Ary raha hoe tena mitsoaka amin'ny fomba mampalahelo ny filoha noho ny sitrapon'ny vahoaka, dia matahotra ny Syriana hoe hitondra amin'ny adim-poko sy ny firotsahan'ny Israeliana ny revolisiona- mety zavatra hiseho daholo ireo roa ireo.
43Saudi Arabia is too tribally divided, and many sections of society are too comfortable, for revolutionary disruption.I Arabia Saodita indray dia diso mitsitokotoko loatra, ary sampana maro ao anaty fiarahamonina no mahazo vahana, ho an'ny fisamantsamahan'ny revolisiona.
44The angriest population in the kingdom is the oppressed Shia community, but any action on their part would be fiercely opposed by the Wahhabi heartland.Ny vahoaka tena tezitra mafy ao anatin'io fanjakana io dia ny vondrom-piarahamonina Shia izay iharan'ny tsindry hazolena, nefa izay hetsika avy any amin'izy ireo dia hisedra fanoherana mafy avy amin'ny Wahhabi.
45Bahrain, with a politicised and intelligent Shia majority facing an oppressive Sunni ruling family, is a more likely candidate for change.I Bahrain, miaraka amin'ny ankamaroan'ny Shia voatefy ara-politika sy manampahaizana miatrika nySunni, fianakaviana mpitondra sy mpanindry, dia toa isan'ny kandida ho amin'ny fiovàna.
46Egypt is the unknown quantity.I Ejipta no tsy fantatra.
47On the one hand, the failure of Mubarak's gangster regime has been resounding.Amin'ny lafiny iray, efa nanàko ny fialàn'ny fitondràn-jiolahin'i Mubarak.
48On the other, very many Egyptians do not have the leisure to think about anything except their next meal.Etsy ankilany kosa, Ejiptiana maro no tsy manam-potoana hieritreretana afa-tsy ny haniny rahampitso.
49They don't follow events on Facebook or even on al-Jazeera.Tsy manaraka ny zava-misy amin'ny Facebook, eny fa na dia amin'ny al-Jazeera aza ry zareo.
50And we can be almost certain that any serious attempt at popular revolution in Egypt would result in thousands of deaths.Ary afaka mahazo antoka isika fa hiteraka faty olona anjatony ny fanandramana revolisiona iray goavana malaza any Ejipta.
51(But that can play both ways - nothing generates a revolution like a series of funerals.(Nefa afaka miseho amin'ny endriny maro izany - tsy misy miteraka revolisiona hoatry ny fandevenana misesisesy.
52See Ali Farzat's picture above.)Jereo ny sarin'i Ali Farzat etsy ambony.)
53Perhaps in six months' time non-Arab commentators will decide that the Tunisian revolution was a mere anomaly in an eternally stagnant Arab world.Mety hoe ao anatin'ny enim-bolana, hisy mpaneho hevitra tsy Arabo hanapa-kevitra fa hoe tsy fetezana tsotra fotsiny ny revolisiona Toniziana teo amin'ny tontolo Arabo tsy nandroso tsy nihemotra.
54But they'll be wrong.Nefa ho diso izy ireo.
55The revolution will exert a long-term pervasiveness throughout Arab culture, as the Iranian revolution did before it.Hametraka korontana maharitra amin'ny kolotsaina Arabo ilay revolisiona, toy ny nataon'ny revolisiona Iraniana teo aloha.
56It will change the air the Arabs breathe and the dreams the Arabs dream.Hanova ny rivotra izay iainan'ny Arabo izany ary ny nofy izay ataony.
57Meanwhile, back in Bahrain, Mahmood Al Yousif is worried that Tunisia will now go from one extreme - to the other.Mandritra izany, miverina any Bahrain, manahy i Mahmood Al Yousif fa niala avy amin'ny tendro iray ho amin'ny iray hafa tanteraka i Tonizia amin'izao fotoana izao.
58He writes:Hoy izy manoratra:
59I'm willing to bet that the pendulum now will swing from the one extreme of robbing the Tunisian people of one important element of their identity, religion - through to the other end and we'll see the rise of Islamism and Islamist sentiments.Te-hiloka aho fa amin'izao fotoana izao ny famantaranandro dia hanondro ny tendro lavitra indrindra amin'ny fangalarana amin'ny vahoaka Toniziana ny singa tena manandanja indrindra famantarana azy ireo dia ny finoana - ho amin'ny tendro iray hafa, ary ho hitantsika eto ny fitroatr'ireo Islamisma sy ny fihetseham-po Islamista.
60So who and what gets sacrificed at the alter of extremism?Ka iza ary inona no hatao sorona eo amin'ny alitaran'ny extremisme?
61Common sense and moderation.Ny fahatsiarovantena sy ny fandeferana.
62Al Yousif adds:Hoy i Al Yousif manampy:
63We have quite a lot to learn from the “Tunisian Experiment”, and the wise will benefit most if they take time to understand what transpired and why and try to enact those lessons in their own societies with the inculcation of the respect for human rights and their freedoms of faith, association, thought and speech, and not to shove one doctrine or another down people's throats.Manana lesona betsaka isika azo tsoahana avy amin'ny “Andran'ny Toniziana ”, ary ny hendry dia hahazo tombony kokoa raha maka fotoana tsara handinihana izay tena hiainany ary ny anton'izany, ary hanandrana ny hampihatra ireo lesona ireo eo amin'ny fiarahamoniny miaraka amin'ny fampianarana ny fanajana ny zon'olombelona sy ny fahalalan'izy ireo eo ara-pinoana, ara-pikambanana, ara-pisainana sy fahalalaham-pitenenana, ary tsy hanao amboletra fotsiny izao ny hafa hitelina ny foto-kevitra itsy na iroa.