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1 | Sudan: Will Africa give birth to a new nation in 2011? | Sodàna: Hiteraka fanjakana vaovao ve i Afrika amin'ny 2011? |
2 | This post is part of our special coverage South Sudan Referendum 2011. | Hiteraka fanjakana vaovao ve i Afrika amin'ny 2011? |
3 | Will Africa give birth to a new nation in 2011? Southern Sudan will hold a referendum on whether or not it should remain as a part of Sudan on 9 January 2011 as part of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the Khartoum central government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement. | Hanao fitsapan-kevi-bahoaka i Sodàna Atsimo na hoe hijanona na tsia ho faritr'i Sodàna izy amin'ny 9 Janoary 2011 araka ny ao anatin'ny Fifanarahana Ankapobeny ho amin'ny Fandriam-pahalemana tamin'ny 2005 teo amin'ny governemanta foibe ao Khartoum sy ny Hetsi-panafahan'ny Vahoaka ao Sodàna. |
4 | A simultaneous referendum will be held in Abyei on whether to become part of Southern Sudan. | Fitsapankevi-bahoaka iray koa no hatao amin'io fotoana io ihany any Abyei mikasika ny hoe ho lasa faritr'i Sodàna Tatsimo na tsia. |
5 | This is a roundup of posts discussing Sudan at a historical crossroad. | Ireto misy fehina lahatsoratra miresaka an'i Sodàna eo amin'ny sampanan-dalan'ny tantara. |
6 | Wolfram Lacher, a researcher on Sudan and the Horn of Africa, discusses contentious issues related to the referendum and possible solutions: | Miresaka mikasika ny olana mifandray amin'ny fitsapankevi-bahoaka sy ny vahaolana azo raisina i Wolfram Lacher, mpikaroka mikasika an'i Sodàna sy ny Tandrok'i Afrika: |
7 | The negotiations are structured into four areas, each of which is covered by a working group comprising representatives of both parties: Citizenship; Security; Economic, Financial and Natural Resources; as well as International Treaties and Legal Issues. | Nalamina ho sehatra efatra ny fifanarahana, izay ny tsirairay amin'izy ireo dia iandraiketan'ny vondron'asa ahitana ny solontenan'ny andaniny sy ny ankilany: Ny zo ara-piarahamonina, ny fiarovana, ny ara-toe-karena, ny Ara-bola sy ny Harena voajanahary, ary koa ny Fifanaharana Iraisam-pirenena sy ny resaka Lalàna. |
8 | Key negotiating points include an arrangement to divide up oil export revenues; the rights and duties of citizens across the common border (including rights of residence, work, trade and land use); the currency and national debt; water; and security arrangements. | Ahitana ny fifanarahana fizarana ny tamberim-bidy ampidirin'ny solika aondrana ny teboka fototra amin'ny fifampiraharahana; ny zo sy ny adidin'ireo mponina manodidina ny sisintany iraisana (ahitana ny zo hanana trano, asa, varotra, ary ny fampiasana tany); ny vola sy ny trosa nasionaly; rano ary fifanaraham-piarovana. |
9 | In addition, two issues that are not part of the negotiations in this context are nevertheless of major importance for future north-south relations: the delineation of the common border, and the status of Abyei. | Fanampin'izany, ny olana roa izay tsy ao anatin'ny fifampiraharahana amin'io sehatra io nefa tena manan-danja tokoa amin'ny hoavin'ny fifandraisan'ny atsimo sy avaratra: ny famaritana ny tsipiky ny sisintany iombonana, ary ny sàtan'i Abyei. |
10 | He argues that the Abyei referendum might lead to violence. | Miaro ny heviny izy fa hoe mety hiteraka herisetra ny fitsapankevi-bahoaka any Abyei. |
11 | Abyei is an area in Sudan with “special administrative status,” | Faritra any Sodàna i Abyei ary manana “sata ara-taratasy manokana,” |
12 | The preparations for the Abyei referendum have experienced even more delays than the independence referendum, and the criteria for voter eligibility are fiercely contested. | Nisedra fahatarana raha oharina amin'ny fitsapankevi-bahoaka tamin'ny fahaleovan-tena ny fanomanana ny fitsapankevi-bahoaka ho an'i Abyei, ary tena voakiana mafy mihitsy ny mason-tsivana hahafahana mirotsaka ho an'ny mpifidy. |
13 | As a result, doubts are growing whether the vote will be held on time, and the Abyei dispute is increasingly becoming a negotiating point. | Vokany, mitombo ny ahiahy na ho vita ara-potoana ihany ny fifidianana na tsia, ary lasa teboka iray tena tsy maintsy hifampiraharahana mihitsy ny momba an'i Abyei. |
14 | In September, the NCP suggested that the Abyei referendum should be cancelled and the area should be turned into a demilitarised zone whose residents would have dual nationality. | Tamin'ny volana Septambra, dia nanome sosokevitra ny NCP hoe tokony hofoanana ny fitsapankevi-bahoaka any Abyei ary tokony havadika ho faritra tsy misy miaramila ny toerana ka hanana zom-pirenena roa ireo monina ao. |
15 | The SPLM has rejected the proposal, not least because it would represent a departure from one of the key components of the CPA, and therefore could ultimately raise questions about the independence referendum itself. | Nolavin'ny SPLM ny soso-kevitra, tsy kely indrindra satria mety hahatonga ny fialàn'ny iray amin'ireo tena ain'ny CPA izany, ary mety hiteraka fanontaniana mikasika ny fitsapankevi-bahoaka momba ny fahaleovan-tena mihitsy. |
16 | Nevertheless, a negotiated solution would offer an opportunity to defuse the Abyei dispute. | Na izany aza, mety hiteraka zava-tsoa ny vahaolana ifampiraharahana mba hamahàna ny fifamaliana any Abyei. |
17 | The Abyei referendum would be very likely to lead to violence in the region. | Tena mety hiteraka herisetra any an-toerana ny fitsapankevi-bahoaka. |
18 | The conflict not only has a national dimension (related to the oilfields located in Abyei) but is particularly explosive at the local level, where the rights to residency and land use of two groups are at stake - the Ngok Dinka (a key constituency for the SPLM) and the Misseriya (a Baggara tribe). Luke A. | Tsy hoe miparitaka eran'ny firenena fotsiny ny ady (mifandray amin'ny resaka tany misy solika any Abyei) fa indrindra vanja miotrika ho any ao an-toerana, faritra izay mbola olana koa ny zo honina sy hampiasa ny tany ho an'ireo vondrona roa - ny Ngok Dinka (toerana amaharan'ny SPLM) sy ny Misseriya (foko Baggara). |
19 | Patey, a Project Researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, writes about oil and the referendum: | Manoratra mikasika ny solika sy ny fitsapankevi-bahoaka i Luke A. Patey, Mpikaroka amina tetikasa ao amin'ny Ivontoerana Danoa ho an'ny Fianarana Iraisam-pirenena: |
20 | Three months and one week remain until the people of Southern Sudan have the opportunity to vote for independence. | Mbola misy telovolana sy herinandro iray mandra-pahafahan'ny olona any Sodàna Atsimo hifidy ny fahaleovantenany. |
21 | Apprehension is growing that an oil war is in the making. | Mitombo ny tahotra fa mety hisy ny ady solika. |
22 | But such fears should be tempered. | Nefa tokony halamina izany tebiteby izany. |
23 | War between northern and southern armies over the country's oil-rich border region is unlikely. | Tsy hisy mihitsy ny ady eo amin'ny tafika tatsimo sy tavaratra any amin'ny faritry ny sisintany manankarena solika eto amin'ny firenena. |
24 | Instead, a messy mix of intraparty struggles in the South and local armed resistance in oil-bearing regions pose serious threats. | Ankoatr'izany, tena mametraka ahiahy lehibe mihitsy ny fifanjevoana noho ny korontana anatin'ny antoko any Atsimo sy ny fanoheran'ny tafika any amin'ny faritra manana solika. |
25 | Oil had previously fuelled an over two-decade civil war between the North and South, leaving two million dead until the Comprehensive Peace Agreement was signed in 2005. | Nandrehitra ady sivily nihoatra ny roapolo taona teo amin'ny Atsimo sy ny Avaratra ny solika teo aloha izay nahafatesana roa tapitrisa mandrapahavita sonia ny Fifanarahana Ankapobeny ho amin'ny Fandriam-pahalemana tamin'ny taona (Comprehensive Peace Agreement) 2005. |
26 | Since peace was established, the North's ruling National Congress Party and its southern counterpart, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement have no interest in disrupting their yearly windfalls of oil revenue by returning to war. | Hatramin'izay dia nipetraka tsara ny fandriampahalemana, ny National Congress Party (NCP) ny Avaratra ary ny mitovy laharana aminy tany amin'ny faritra Atsimo, tsy hahita tombony amin'ny fanapahana ny fidiram-bolany isan-taona avy amin'ny solika ka hiverina hanangana ady ny Hetsi-panafahan'ny Vahoaka ao Sodàna. |
27 | Even with southern separation almost assured, when it comes to oil, the North and South will be attached to one another for years to come. | Na dia heverina ho efa azo antoka aza ny fisintahan'ny Tatsimo, rehefa tonga eo amin'ny resaka solika, dia tsy maintsy hifamatotra ho iray indray ny Atsimo sy ny Avaratra mandritra ny taona maro ho avy. |
28 | He notes that oil might be a divisive factor in an independent Southern Sudan: | Milaza izy fa mety ho antony iray mampisara-bazana ny solika ao anatina Sodàna Atsimo mahaleotena : |
29 | Oil may prove to be a highly divisive factor in power struggles in an independent Southern Sudan. | Mety ho antony iray tena mampisara-bazana amin'ny ady fitondrana ao anatina Sodàna Atsimo mahaleotena ny solika. |
30 | The forces of high-ranking SPLM members, Unity State Governor Taban Deng and General Paulino Matip, clashed last October in Bentiu. | Nifandona tao Bentiu ny volana Oktobra farany teo ny tafika mitampiadioana mpikambana ao amin'ny SPLM , ny governoran'ny Fanjakana tokana Taban Deng sy ny Jeneraly Paulino Matip. |
31 | Matip has close ties with a US oil outfit, Jarch Capital, which according to its Chairman Phil Heilberg is hoping to capitalize on ‘sovereignty changes' in Sudan. | Manana fifamatorana akaiky amina orinasan-tsolika Amerikana Jarch Capital i Matip, izay raha ny hevitry ny TaleJeneraliny, i Phil Heilberg, dia manantena ny hanararaotra ny ‘fiovàna sata ara-panjakana' any Sodàna. |
32 | Jarch's claim to oil concessions stand in opposition to those of other companies signed up with the southern government. | Mijoro mifanohitra amin'ny an'ireo orinasa hafa nanao sonia niaraka tamin'ny governemanta Tatsimo ny fangatahan'ny orinasa Jarch. |
33 | The former rebels may face their own rebellion soon enough in an independent Southern Sudan. | Tsy ho ela dia mety hiatrika ny ady avy ao anatiny ihany ireo mpihoko tao Sodàna Tatsimo mahaleotena. |
34 | A Niger Delta scenario of entrenched conflict between local armed groups and government security forces is brewing in Sudan's oil regions. | Tantara mitovitovy amin'ny ano amin'ny Delta du Niger ahitana ady mafàna eo amin'ny vondrona mitam-piadiana eo an-toerana sy ny tafi-piarovan'ny governemanta no hita soritra any amin'ireo faritra misy solika ao Sodàna . |
35 | Four Chinese oil workers were killed in 2008 during a botched rescue attempt by Sudanese authorities after the workers were kidnapped near the oil town of Heglig. | Sinoa mpiasan'ny solika efatra no maty tamin'ny taona 2008 nandritra ny andrana famonjena nataon'ny manam-pahefana Sodàne taorian'ny nakana an-keriny ireo mpiasa teo akaikin'ny tananan'ny solika any Heglig. |
36 | Local populations have seen little benefit come out of oil. | Nahita tombony kely avy amin'ny solika ny vahoaka eo an-toerana. |
37 | “There is no question that the results of the referendum will be disputed,” says Reverend Sam Kobia: | “Tsy misy intsony antony hanoherana ny valin'ny fitsapankevi-bahoaka,” hoy i Reverend Sam Kobia: |
38 | There is no question that the results of the referendum will be disputed. | Tsy misy intsony antony hanoherana ny valin'ny fitsapankevi-bahoaka. |
39 | The North will not accept the South as separate, the South will not accept any result that does not give them separation, and therefore there will be dispute. | Tsy hanaiky mihitsy ny Avaratra hoe hisaraka ny Atsimo, ny Atsimo kosa dia tsy hanaiky valiny tsy manome azy ny fisarahana, ary dia noho izay no hisian'ny fifandirana. |
40 | Currently, there are no clear mechanisms on how to resolve that dispute. | Amin'izao fotoana izao, tsy misy mekanisma mazava intsony mikasika ny fomba hamahana ity fifandirana ity. |
41 | This is one message we are putting to the Troika, who are the guarantors of the CPA; we are putting it to all other international actors. | Ity no hafatra iray apetratsika ho an'ny Troika, izay mpiantoka ny CPA; apetratsika izany ho an'ireo mpandray anjara rehetra avy amin'ny sehatra iraisam-pirenena. |
42 | The other area is security. | Ny sehatra iray hafa dia ny fandriampahalemana. |
43 | Without security, people will find it very difficult to participate meaningfully in the referendum. | Raha tsy misy fandriampahalemana dia hitan'ny olona ho tena sarotra tokoa ny handray anjara marina amin'ny fitsapankevi-bahoaka. |
44 | At the moment, the troops of the North and the troops of the South are only 5 kilometers [3 miles] apart. | Amin'izao fotoana izao, 5 kilometatra monja [3 miles]no manasaraka ny andian-tafiky ny Atsimo sy ny Avaratra. |
45 | That border needs to be secured; there needs to be a buffer zone so that we don't have these soldiers facing each other. | Mila arovana iny sisintany iny, mila asiana faritra tsy azo ihoarana, amin'izay isika tsy hahita an'ireo miaramila ireo hifanatri-tava . |
46 | The information we are getting from the ground is that there is a mobilization of the troops - the people themselves are telling us that, as churches. | Ny vaovao azontsika avy any an-toerana dia hoe misy fanetsehana andian-tafika izao - na ny olona aza dia milaza izany aminay, toy ny fiangonana. |
47 | He describes hot spot areas in Southern Sudan: | Manoritra faritra mena (mafàna) any Atsimon'i Sodàna izy: |
48 | Finally, we are seeing hot spots, where violence could flare up after, or even as we move to, the referendum. | Nahita faritra mena ihany isika nony farany isika, izay mety hirehetan'ny herisetra aorian'ny fitsapankevi-bahoaka, na mandra-pahatongantsika any. |
49 | In the transitional areas, Abyei [is] supposed to have a referendum, but no referendum commission has been formed. | Eo amin'ny sehatry ny tetezamita, ambara fa hisy fitsapankevi-bahoaka any Abyei [is], saingy tsy nisy komitin'ny fitsapankevi-bahoaka natsangana kosa anefa any. |
50 | With less than 100 days left, it's going to be very difficult for that to happen. | 100 andro latsaka sisa tavela, dia ho sarotra ny hisian'izany. |
51 | Secondly, the Southern Kordofan, the Nuba Mountains, and Blue Nile - these states are going to have popular consultations, which are supposed to be done by the elected members of the legislative assembly. | Faharoa, any Atsimon'i Kordofan , ny Tendrombohitr'i Nuba , ary i Blue Nile - dia hanomboka ny fakana ny hevitry ny mponina izay heverina ho tanterahan'ireo mpikambana voafidin'ny antenimiera mpanao lalàna. |
52 | But in Blue Nile, a majority of those elected belong to the government of Al-Bashir NCP [the ruling party in Khartoum]; they cannot represent the aspirations of the people. | Nefa any Blue Nile, an'ny governemantan'i Al-Bashir NCP [ny antokon'ny mpitondra ao Khartoum] ireo voafidy ireo; tsy afaka maneho ny tena hetahetan'ny olona izy ireo. |
53 | Ola Diab observes that the referendum will shake the Afro-Arab's stability: | Nahita i Ola Diab fa hanetsika ny fahamarinam-pototry ny Afro-Arabo ilay fitsapankevi-bahoaka: |
54 | This referendum is shaking the Afro-Arab's stability. | Manozongozona ny fahamarinam-pototra Afro-Arabo io fitsapankevi-bahoaka io. |
55 | If the south decides to secede then both regions will reach economic stagnation. | Raha manapa-kevitra ny hihataka ny Atsimo, dia tsy handroso tsy hihemotra ara-toe-karena daholo ny roa tonta. |
56 | Much of Sudan's six billion oil barrels lie in the south but the distribution network is in the north, which makes the two parts of the country economically interdependent. | Betsaka amin'ireo solika Sodane enimpolo tapitrisa barila no mandry any atsimo saingy ny tambajotram-pizarana dia any avaratra, izay no mahatonga ireo faritra roa amin'ny firenena ireo hifampiankina ara-toe-karena. |
57 | The referendum is highly emotional for both northerners and southerners that could drag them into war again because of the lack of clarity on the status of citizenship, wealth sharing, borders and the oil areas. | Tena anjakan'ny fientanam-po loatra ny fitsapankevi-bahoaka na ho an'ny tatsimo na ho an'ny tavaratra ka mety hitarika ady ho azy ireo indray noho ny tsy fahampian'ny fanazavana eo amin'ny satan'ny fizakana zom-pirenena, ny fitsinjaràna ny harena, ny sisintany ary ny faritry misy solika. |
58 | The severance of the south from the rest of Sudan could be the grounds for other regions in Sudan to ask for separation too. | Mety ho tontolo iaingan'ny fangatahana fisarahana ataon'ny faritra hafa any Sodàna ihany koa ny fihenjanan'ny faritra atsimon'i Sodana manoloana ireo sisa tavela. |
59 | Regions like the Upper Nile, Abeyi, Southern Kordofan, and Darfur and the rest of the western region, like the South, have been criticizing the Sudanese government for decades for being negligent of them and discriminatory. | Efa am-polotaonany maro ny faritra tahaka an'i Nile Ambony, Abeyi, Kordofan tatsimo, sy Darfur ary ny ambiny amin'ny faritra andrefana, toy ny Atsimo, no efa nanakiana ny governemanta Sodane mikasika ny tsy firaharahiana azy ireo sy ny fanavakavahana. |
60 | Ensent wonders whether Ethiopians are ready to accept a new neighbour: | Manontany tena i Ensent raha vonona ny hanaiky mpiray vodirindrina vaovao ny Etiopiana na tsia: |
61 | The referendum that is to take place early next year in Southern Sudan is sure to give birth to Africa's newest nation, though there are still plenty of obstacles to overcome before this becomes a reality. | Azo antoka aloha fa hiteraka fanjakana vaovao ho an'i Afrika ny fitsapankevi-bahoaka izay hatao amin'ny herintaona any atsimon'i Sodàna, na dia mbola feno sakana maro tsy maintsy lalovana aza alohan'ny hahatongavan'izany ho tena zava-misy tokoa. |
62 | But are Ethiopians ready to welcome a new nation-state to their west and all that it entails, both good and bad? | Fa vonona ve anefa ny Etiopiana handray fanjakana vaovao eo andrefany sy izay rehetra tonga miaraka amin'izay, ny tsara sy ny ratsy? |
63 | Finally, Andrew Heavens discusses the search for a new name in a post titled “Juwama vs. the Nile Republic - South Sudan searches for a new name”: | Farany, miresaka mikasika ny fikarohana anarana vaovao eo amin'ny lahatsoratra mitondra ny lohateny hoe “Juwama vs. ny Repoblikan'i Nile - mitady anarana vaovao i Sodàna Atsimo” i Andrew Heavens: |
64 | What's in a name? | Inona no ho ao anatin'ilay anarana? |
65 | An entire cultural and national identity if you are from Sudan's oil-producing south. | Anarana tena ara-koltoraly sy nasionaly raha toa ianao ka avy any atsimon'i Sodàna mpamokatra solika. |
66 | The region of southern Sudan is now less than seven months away from a referendum on whether it should split away to form Africa's newest country. | Fito volana latsaka miala amin'ny fitsapankevi-bahoaka sisa ny faritra any Sodàna Tatsimo mikasika ny hoe tokony hisaraka na tsia izy ka hanangana firenena vaovao eto Afrika. |
67 | One of the biggest unanswered questions hanging over the vote is what the new nation should call itself if, as widely expected, embittered southerners choose to secede. | Iray amin'ireo fanontaniana lehibe tsy nahitam-baliny mihalohalo amin'ny fifidianana ny hoe iza no mety ho anaran'ilay firenena vaovao raha, araka ny efa nandrasan'ny rehetra, hifidy ny hihataka ireo tatsimo efa sorena. |
68 | The easiest option would be to stick to what people call it now - South Sudan or Southern Sudan. | Ny safidy mora indrindra aloha dia ny manaraka ny antsoin'ny olona amin'izao fotoana izao hoe- Atsimon'i Sodàna na Sodàna Tatsimo. |
69 | But there are some serious branding issues. | Nefa misy ihany koa ireo olana sasany momba ny laza. |
70 | Say “Sudan” to most outsiders and they will immediately think of a list of nasties - Darfur, the never-ending north-south civil war, military coups, militancy and crippling debt. | Mitenena “Sodàna” amin'ireo vahiny dia hihevitra avy hatrany lisitra zava-doza ry zareo - Darfur, ady sivily teo amin'ny tatsimo-tavaratra tsy misy fiafarana, fanonganam-panjakana, fiqndaniana sy trosa mitambesatra. |
71 | A new nation might be grateful for a new name with a clean slate. | Tsara amin'ny firenena vaovao ny manana anarana vaovao sy fitantanana madio. |