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1Can Cyprus Turn Back from the Abyss?Azon'i Shipra Atao Ve Ny Mivoaka Ny Lavaka Mangitsokitsoka?
2Three Options to Escape the Financial CrisisVahaolana Telo Ho An'i Shipra Hialàna Amin'ny Krizy Ara-bola
3The small island of Cyprus continues its race against bankruptcy.Ity lahatsoratra ity dia ampahany amin'ny fandrakofan'ny Global Voices momba ny Eoropa anaty krizy.
4Manohy ny hazakazany hiadiana amin'ny bankirompitra ny nosy kelin'i Shipra.
5Following the European decision to tax all depositors, [fr] the Mediterranean republic faces a critical situation.Miatrika toe-javatra tena sarotra ankehitriny ilay repoblika Mediteraneana taorian'ny fanapahan-kevitra Eoropeana ny hanisy hetra hoan'ireo mpandrotsa-bola rehetra[fr].
6Three options are emerging for the island: to carry out an agreement with Europe, to turn to Russia, or to declare bankruptcy and leave the Eurozone.Safidy telo no miseho ho an'ilay nosy: manao fifampiraharahana amin'i Eoropa, mitodika any Rosia, milaza fa bankirompitra sady miala amin'ny faritra Euro amin'izay fotoana izay.
7Origins of the crisisFototry ny krizy
8This crisis arose after a significant loss in assets of the Popular Bank of Cyprus and the Bank of Cyprus, due to the debt restructuring plan in Greece, in March 2012.Nipoitra ity krizy ity taorian'ny fatiantoka goavana tamin'ny petra-bola tao amin'ny Bankim-bahoaka any Shipra sy ny Bankin'i Shipra, noho ny drafitra fanavaozana ny trosa natao tany Gresy tamin'ny Martsa 2012.
9The two Cypriot banks then found themselves obligated to seek recapitalization in the capital city, Nicosia [fr].Taorian'izay moa tsy maintsy nangataka fanavaozana renivola tany Nicosia [fr] ireo banky Shipriota roa ireo.
10Private-sector solution?Vahaolana Avy Amin'ny Sehatra Tsy miankina?
11For their part, Greek banks are also closely tied to Cyprus.Tena mifamatotra akaiky amin'i Shipra ireo banky Grika.
12The Bank for International Settlements, [fr] or BIS, estimates the Greek banks' investments in Cyprus at 12.6 billion euros, an amount not less than 28% of all Cypriot banks' investments.Heverin'ny Bank for International Settlements, [fr] na BIS, ho maherin'ny 12,6 lavitrisa euro ny fitambaran'ny fampiasàm-bola ataon'ny banky Grika any Shipra. Eo amin'ny 28% n'ny fampiasam-bolan'ny banky Shipriota io.
13This therefore rules out the possibility of a private-sector intervention plan on the island.Manakana ny mety ho fahafahan'ireo sehatra tsy miankina handray anjara ho amin'ny fandaharan'asa fanarenana ny nosy izany.
14The offices of the Bank of Cyprus at Aglandjia, via Wikipedia CC-BY-2;0Biraon'ny Bankin'i Shipra any Aglandjia, avy amin'ny alalan'ny Wikipedia CC-BY-2;0
15So, if Cyprus could contribute from its banks the sum of 7 billion euros, refused to them by Europe, out of the 17 billion euros which it owes, Europe would be obligated to give aid to Greece again [fr], further weakening the recovering stability of the country.Noho izany, raha toa i Shipra afaka mandray anjara avy amin'ny bankiny, manome ny tontalim-bola 7 lavitrisa euro, izay nolavin'i Eoropa tsy ho azy ireo, oharina amin'ny 17 lavitrisa hafa izay mbola tokony aloa amin'ireto farany, dia tsy afaka ny tsy hanome vola ho an'i Gresy indray izany Eoropa[fr], vao maika koa izany hampaharefo ny fahamarinan-toeran'ny firenena.
16A renegotiation, particularly in the plan of the troika, would be risky.Mety hampidi-doza ny hanaovana fifampiraharahana vaovao, indrindra mikasika ny tetikasan'ny troika.
17This is also partly why the Greek economy is affected by the tax on deposits.Izany ihany koa amin'ny ampahany no antony mahatonga ny toekarena Grika ho voadona amin'ny hetra ho an'ny mpandrotsa-bola.
18Furthermore, organizing a private-sector intervention in Cyprus might be frowned upon by investors.Fanampin'izany, mety hampivandravandra ireo mpamatsy vola ihany koa ny fikarakarana ny fidiran'ireo mpisehatra tsy miankina any Shipra.
19It should not be forgotten that “the Greek case” is expected to remain unique.Tsy tokony hadinoina mihitsy fa tokony hijanona ho tokana ny “tranga Grika”.
20Otherwise, it would be tempting for other countries now experiencing a complex economic situation, such as Spain, Italy or Portugal, to seek private-sector assistance as well.Raha tsy izany, hisarika ny firenena hafa izay miatrika toe-draharaha ara-toekarena sarotra ihany koa, sahala amin'i Espana, Italy, Portiogaly, mba hitady fanampiana avy amin'ny mpamatsy vola tsy miankina.
21The consequences of this would be irrevocable.Mety tsy ho azo iverenana intsony ny vokatr'izany.
22For the market to finance vulnerable states would become complex, even impossible, and restructuring of public debt for other countries, and of the European Central Bank, would loom dangerously on the horizon.Ho sarotra ho an'ny tsena, na tsy ho vita mihitsy aza, ny hamatsy vola ireo firenena marefo, ary mety hampidi-doza be mihitsy eo amin'ny tontolo ny fanitsiana trosam-panjakana any amin'ny firenen-kafa, avy amin'ny Banky Foibe Eoropeana.
23In fact, regarding the deposits, this is another “unique case” which Europe hopes to create.Ny tena marina, raha ny vola mipetraka any amin'ny banky no jerena, dia mbola “tranga hafa manokana” kasain'ny Eoropa atsangana ihany koa izy io.
24The Social Democratic Party of Germany [fr], or SDP, wants to make an example of Cyprus, in order to stop the vote in favor of European aid in the Bundestag [fr], which is essential to Chancellor Angela Merkel.Te hanao an'i Shipra ho ohatra ny Antoko sosialy Demokratika any Alemana [fr], na ny SDP, mba hampiatoana ny vato fiandaniana amin'ny fanampiana Eoropeana ao amin'ny Bundestag [fr], izay zava-dehibe indrindra ho an'ny Chancellor Angela Merkel.
25So, aid for Cyprus is not likely to occur without the support of the Bundestag.Noho izany, tsy hisy mihitsy ny fanampiana ho an'i Shipra raha tsy misy fanohanana avy amin'ny Bundestag.
26The SDP sees a reserve of money in Cyprus which is noted to be of Russian origin, and suspected to belong to the “mafia”.Mahita an'i Shipra ho toy ny tahirim-bola izay toa mahita ny loharanony avy amin'ny Rosiana ny SDP, ary miahiahy izy ireo hoe an'ny “mafia” io.
27The private sector intervention did not really hit the wallet of Russia, so the European solution should focus on deposits.Tsy dia nisy fiantraikany loatra tamin'ny tahirin'i Rosia ny fidiran'ny mpamatsy vola tsy miankina, ka tokony hifantoka amin'ny petra-bola ny vahaolana Eoropeana.
28Since Cyprus refused to accept a drain of deposits more than 10%, so as not to ruin the reputation of its economic system, it was necessary to broaden its tax base, and to spread the impact across all depositors, including residents.Satria tsipahan'i Shipra ny fandrotsahanana petra-bola maherin'ny 10%, mba tsy hanimba ny lazan'ny rafitra ara-toekareny, dia tsy maintsy atao ny fampitomboana ny fototry ny hetrany, ary haparitaka amin'ny mpametra-bola ny fiantraikan'izany, eny fa na dia ny mponina eo an-toerana aza.
29But this could still be enough to push Cyprus into the abyss.Sainga mbola mety ho ampy handetika an-davaka kokoa an'i Shipra anefa izany.
30This is why it rejected the European plan.Izany no antony mahatonga azy hitsipaka ny fandaharan'asa Eoropeana.
31At this point, Cyprus finds itself faced with several possibilities.Eo indrindra no mahatonga an'i Shipra hiatrika safidy maro.
32Given the intense reactions in Europe, and especially in Cyprus, during recent days, some of the European decision-makers seem to want to backtrack, regretting their original choices.Raha zohina ny fihetseham-po mahery vaika tany Eoropa, indrindra fa tany Shipra, nandritra izay andro vitsy lasa izay, dia toa sahala amin'ny hiverina amin'ny teniny ny sasany tamin'ireo mpandray fanapahan-kevitra Eoropeana, hanenina amin'ny voalohan-tsafidiny.
33We see attempts to reduce the participation of Cyprus in its own bailout.Hitantsika izao ireo fanandramana hampihenana ny fandraisan'anjaran'i Shipra amin'io fanavotana azy io.
34However, Europe may not accept an attempted renegotiation.Na izany aza, mety tsy hanaiky ny hamerenana indray ny fifampiraharahana i Eoropa.
35The debate about the complete participation of the ESM (European Stability Mechanism) [fr], which oversees 5.8 billion euros in aid, still remains.Mbola mitoetra aloha hatreto ny adihevitra mikasika ny fandraisana anjara fenon'ny ESM (Mekanisma Eoropeana Ho an'ny Fahamarinan-toerana - European Stability Mechanism) [fr], izay mitantana vola 5.8 lavitrisa euro amin'ny fanampiana.
36Alliance with RussiaFiaraha-miasa amin'i Rosia
37The second solution would be for Cyprus to ally itself with Russia.Ny vahaolana faharoa ho an'i Shipra dia ny miara-miasa amin'i Rosia.
38Indeed, Putin wants to defend Russian assets on the island, asking, in exchange, for large concessions on gas and Russian military facilities, not to mention the recent discovery of an oil deposit off the island.Indrindra koa fa te-hiaro ny petra-bola Rosiana ao amin'ilay nosy i Putin, ary mangataka ho takalon'izany ny fivarotana entona fampiasa, fitaovam-piadiana Rosiana, raha tsy hilaza ny fahitàna vao haingana ny fisian'ny tahirin-tsolika ao amin'ilay nosy.
39Russia could repurchase Cypriot banks [fr], notably the Laïka Bank, the second-largest banking establishment on the island, in order to save 2.5 billion euros in recapitalization.Mety hividy indray ny banky Shipriota i Rosia [fr], indrindra ny Banky Laïka, banky faharoa lehibe indrindra eo amin'ny nosy, mba hanavotana ny fampiasam-bola 2.5 lavitrisa euro.
40Russian aid would probably be complementary to European aid, and undoubtedly there would not be any actual rupture between Cyprus and the Eurozone.Mety hifameno amin'ny fanampiana Eoropeana ny fanampiana Rosiana, ary amin'izay tsy misy ahiahiana intsony ny mety ho fisarahan'i Shipra amin'ny Faritra Euro.
41For its part, Russia would gain significant influence in strategically important Cyprus.Ho an'i Rosia kosa, mety hamela dindo bebe kokoa i Rosia any Shipra izay manandanja betsaka amin'ny resaka tetikady.
42The island would safeguard the interests of Moscow in Europe, but would risk creating some problems in the future.Tsy maintsy hiaro ny tombontsoan'i Mosko any Eoropa ilay nosy, nefa mety hiteraka olana vitsivitsy izany amin'ny hoavy.
43But Russia is apparently in no hurry to make a decision.Nefa i Rosia toa tsy maika ny handray fanapahan-kevitra.
44Andrei Kostin, director of VTB Bank [formerly the Vneshtorgbank], announced on March 21 that his institution was not at all interested [fr] in buying bank assets on the island:Nilaza i Andrei Kostin, talen'ny Banky VTB [Ny Vneshtorgbank teo aloha], tamin'ny 21 Martsa fa tsy liana [fr] ny hividy petra-bola aminà banky eo amin'ilay nosy ny orinasa hoe entiny:
45First, there are two banks in critical condition that would need to be cleaned up.Voalohany, misy banky roa tena anaty raharaha manahirana izay mila diovina eto.
46It would be absurd to suggest that we would have an interest in those.Tsy mety ny milaza hoe misy tombontsoanay ao anatin'izany.
47Our only interest is to regain the ability to make payments as quickly as possible, and to manage the accounts of our clients.Ny hany mahaliana anay dia ny hahitàna indray fomba hahafahana mandoa vola araka izay haingana, ary koa ny hafahafahanay mitantana ny kaontin'ny mpanjifanay.
48And he added that his bank would need to:Ary nanampy izy fa ny bankiny dia tsy maintsy mila:
49“cease its activity entirely, and simply leave the Cypriot market” in the event of “decisions which violate the law, dictated by politics.”mampiato manontolo ny asany, ary hiala fotsiny izao amin'ny tsena Shipriota “raha tonga ny fotoana” handraisana fanapahan-kevitra mandika ny lalàna, ajadon'ny politika.
50Last resort - BankruptcyVahaolana farany - Bankiropitra
51Finally, Cyprus can opt for the extreme but inevitable solution, if Russia and Europe deliver no proper support - bankruptcy.Farany, afaka misafidy ny ratsy indrindra amin'ny vahaolana nefa tsy azo ialàna i Shipra, raha tsy manome fanampiana i Rosia sy i Eoropa- ny bankirompitra.
52Then, recapitalization in Cyprus would be accomplished by banks issuing money.Avy eo, hataon'ny banky ny fampidirana renivola ao Shipra amin'ny famoahany ny vola.
53That would mean leaving the Eurozone [fr], instituting strict controls over the flow of money, and blocking current accounts during the period of conversion to the new Cypriot currency.Midika fialàna amin'ny faritra Eoro[fr] izany, mametraka fanaraha-maso henjana amin'ny fihodinan'ny vola, ary fanakànana ny kaonty fampiasa isanandro mandritra ny fotoana famadihana ho amin'ny sandam-bola vaovaon'i Shipra.
54The island would be ruined, and its financial credit would be permanently damaged.Hahantra kely ny nosy, ary tena ho voadona mafy sy haharitra ny fampindramam-bola.
55This would be followed by a period of economic reconstruction under complex circumstances.Hotohizan'ny fotoana fanarenana ara-toekarenaa anaty vanim-potoana sarotra izy ity.
56And for the Eurozone, it would be a failure, and a disturbing precedent.Ary ho an'ny faritra Euro, mety ho faharesena izany, ary koa fiandohan-javatra mampiahiahy.
57The final agreement reached in Brussels, with the intention to dismantle the largest bank of the country, and to tax bank deposits greater than 100,000 euros, is an ineffective hybrid solution, according to American economist Tyler Cowen:Ny vahaolana farany vita tany Brussels, miaraka amin'ny eritreritra ny hamotika ny banky goavana indrindra eo amin'ny firenena, ary koa ny hampandoavana hetra ny mpametra-bola mihoatra ny 100,000 euro, dia vahaolana tsy mahomby raha ny hevitr'i Tyler Cowen, Amerikana mpandalina ny toekarena:
58What will the price of a Cypriot euro be, relative to a German euro?Ho lasa ohatrinona izany ny vidin'ny Euro Shipriota iray, raha oharina amin'ny an'ny Alemana?
5950%? I call this Cyprus leaving the euro, but keeping the word “euro”, to save face.50%? Izany no antsoiko hoe miala ny euro i Shipra, fa mitazona ny anarana hoe “euro” ihany, mba tsy ho afa-baraka.